Paths To Knowledge (dot Science)

What is actually real in Objective Reality? How do you know? Now, prove it's real!

A Sea Level Calculator

Posted by pwl on February 22, 2009

I found this Sea Level Calculator over at Junk Science that takes issue with the Jerome J. Schmitt ice melt calculations. Interesting. I’ll likely have to recalculate how many nukes will be needed to do the job.

It’s a very interesting article actually with a variation on the calculations – a refinement.

Here is one sample calculation performed by it.

You asked about needed atmospheric temperature rise to elevate sea levels 3.5 meters and 10.00% of that ‘extra’ heat was transferred to ice melt.


And the magic number is: 796.8 °C atmospheric temperature increase is required to raise sea levels 3.500 meters or 137.795 inches due to ice melt when 10.00% of that ‘extra’ heat is transferred from the atmosphere.

The calculation just performed to arrive at a melt volume is dreadfully simplistic — a mere x quantity heat delivers y amount of melt. This calculation is no more useful although certainly more accurate than the ridiculous claims of global warming hysterics and their “Earth will warm 5 °C and seas will rise 7 meters”. That statement could only be true if there was sufficient ice available at -5 °C or warmer and where we could apply that warming — that is, at altitudes less than 750 meters or 2,500 feet. Since neither of those conditions is true then claims of sudden, dramatic sea level rise are quite silly.

The bottom line is that only low altitude, relatively warm ice is vulnerable to enhanced greenhouse effect or “global warming” and the supply of ice meeting those conditions is quite limited. It has been melting for 12,000 years and will continue to do so until Earth plunges into an ice age once more but there is no realistic expectation of sudden, dramatic meltdown.

So, if anyone has a convenient way of plotting what we might call vulnerability maps, yielding ice areas in increments of 150 meters altitude by mean temperature in 1 K (or °C) we would be happy to script up calculators that would determine how much melt would occur if a given temperature increase were maintained until all vulnerable ice melted. No doubt the answers will be equally disappointing for catastrophists.

In the meantime, we promised you a corollary, see The curious incident of the added heat at the surface, where we introduce time into the calculations. How much should the atmosphere warm over a year from the “extra” forcing of added carbon dioxide?

As it’s a calculator you can of course plug in your own numbers. Let me know what you think about it. What’s wrong with it? What’s right about it? How can it be improved? What assumptions need to be added/removed to/from it? Is it bogus or useful, and if so why? Are there any hard core science papers written that cover these calculations? If so, please link to them. Thanks for transforming ignorance into knowledge that can be proven.


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