Paths To Knowledge (dot Science)

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2002 Coral Doomsday Claim is Falsified by Observational Data

Posted by pwl on April 17, 2011

2002 Coral Doomsday Claim is Falsified by Observational Data

The Doomsday Claim: World’s Coral: 40% gone by 2010. “Across the world, coral reefs are turning into marine deserts. It’s estimated that more than a quarter have been lost and that 40 per cent could be gone by 2010.”

Doomsday Claim Validation/Falsification Test: Check the current amount of Coral in the world for 2011. If the coral has dropped by 40% or more or thereabouts the claim is validated and coral doomsday might have arrived, however if the level of coral in 2010 or after has not dropped as predicted the coral doomsday claim is falsified, null and void.

Proof that Falsifies the Claimed Doomsday: “In 1997 the area of the world’s coral reefs was estimated to be 255,000km2 (reference: http://www.springerlink.com/content/ccxb165016ma8792/ ). If the prediction made on 4 Corners is to be believed, then in 2010 the area of the world’s coral reefs should be around 153,000km2. Instead, in 2011, one year on from that alarming forecast, we find that the global area of coral reef is estimated to be 249,713km2 (reference: http://pdf.wri.org/factsheets/factsheet_reefs_main.pdf ). This amounts to a change from 1997 figures of -2.1%. Given the unreported uncertainties, there has essentially been no change in global reef area over the past 10 years. Within error, essentially none of the reefs are missing in 2010.

Conclusion Regarding The Doomsday Claim: The 40% of World’s Coral Gone by 2010 Doomsday Claim is hereby FALSIFIED as the evidence doesn’t support the doomsday claim. Obviously the authors of the doomsday claim did NOT comprehend what is actually going on in the objective reality of Nature with regards to Corals in the Earth’s oceans and how they grow and die or what impacts their life cycles. Clearly Nature had other plans. Clearly they need to learn more before forecasting another coral doomsday event.

Cogent questions by ABC NEWS WATCH:

Will Four corners now provide an update? Or will it leave this forecast of climate doom to go uncorrected?

Reference & Claim Evidence Archive:

http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/archives/2002a_Monday22April2002.htm

“Beautiful One Day

Broadcast: 22/04/2002

Reporter: Stephen McDonell

Across the world, coral reefs are turning into marine deserts. It’s estimated that more than a quarter have been lost and that 40 per cent could be gone by 2010.

It’s almost unthinkable that Australia’s Great Barrier Reef – the world’s biggest coral edifice, 2000 kilometres long, home to 400 coral and 1500 fish species – could be headed the same way.

But the pressure is on. No longer can Australians assume that the reef will be there for future generations to enjoy in all its current beauty and complexity.

Human impact is closing in and there’s a burgeoning battle over conservation, livelihoods and, crucially, the science that tries to measure the risks to the reef.

Four Corners explores the pressures on the reef from sugar, beef, shipping and fishing – and how these traditional industries are chafing against the multi-billion dollar tourism industry.

Reporter Stephen McDonell tells how coral bleaching, driven by global warming, is wrecking reefs world-wide and how the Barrier Reef has, so far, emerged largely unscathed. It may not be so lucky in the years ahead.

Then there’s a potential impact that no one in authority will acknowledge – oil. The Barrier Reef and its outskirts are thought to hold at least 5 billion barrels – Australia’s biggest reserve. The Government rejects any suggestion that the reef could be exploited for its oil, but exploration teams are quietly gathering data on what lies beneath the seabed.

Stephen McDonell reports on the threats to one of the natural wonders of the world.

“Beatiful One Day…” was first broadcast on ABC TV on Monday 22 April, 2002.”

Doomsday Claim Analysis Credit: http://abcnewswatch.blogspot.com/2011/04/past-alarm-worlds-coral-40-gone-by-2010.html

Entry in Doomsday Claims Database by “pwl” of PathsToKnowledge.net.

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