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Archive for the ‘Doomsday Claim Falsified’ Category

The latest hand-wringing “myth-buster” video roundly debunked

Posted by pwl on September 24, 2014

Guest Post By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

The usual suspects have issued yet another “myth-busting” video in their continuing attempt to flog the dead horse of catastrophic Caucasian-caused climate change (CCCCC).

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This latest droopy me-too effort is at sciencealert.com.au/features/20142309-26219.html. Here are the main points in bold face. Science-based responses are in Roman face.

The hand-wringing “myth-buster” climate doomsday droopy video:

“Overall, temperatures are increasing”. This statement is unscientific because the starting and ending dates are not specified. Temperature has declined since the Holocene Climate Optimum 6000-10,000 years ago. The Old Kingdom, Minoan, Roman, and medieval warm periods were also warmer than the present.

Since 1950 there has been warming, but at only half the rate predicted by the IPCC in 1990.

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In the 17 years 11 months from October 1996 to August 2014 there was no global warming at all, according to the RSS satellite dataset, whose output is not significantly different from that of any other global-temperature dataset.

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“Storms, droughts, floods, ocean acidification, sea-level rise”: The usual litany. As for storminess, the trend in severe hurricanes, typhoons and tropical cyclones has been downward in recent decades; there has been no trend in landfalling Atlantic hurricanes for 150 years; and the U.S. has enjoyed its longest period without a major hurricane landfall since records began. There is no trend in extra-tropical storminess either, according to the IPCC’s special report on extreme weather.

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Posted in Climate Science, Complex Systems, Doomsday Claim Falsified, Hard Science, Humbled by Nature, Ignorance to Knowledge, Rational Thinking, Reality Based Environmentalism, Science Education, Science over Propaganada, Science Smackdown, Scientific Method | 3 Comments »

Catastrophic Human Caused Global Warming Falsified aka Proven Wrong

Posted by pwl on November 12, 2012

Polar Bears Relaxing now that CAGW is falsified

“We show that although these anthropogenic forcings share a common stochastic trend, this trend is empirically independent of the stochastic trend in temperature and solar irradiance. Therefore, greenhouse gas forcing, aerosols, solar irradiance and global temperature are not polynomially cointegrated. This implies that recent global warming is not statistically significantly related to anthropogenic forcing.”

CAGW is therefor automatically falsified by the rules of the Scientific Method. Bam. Time to end your beliefs about co2 doomsday. The science for CAGW just isn’t supportable and has now been utterly demolished.

“No theory is carved in stone. Science is merciless when it comes to testing all theories over and over, at any time, in any place. Unlike religion or politics, science is ultimately decided by experiments, done repeatedly in every form. There are no sacred cows. In science, 100 authorities count for nothing. Experiment counts for everything.” – Michio Kaku, a professor of theoretical physics at City College of New York

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Posted in Adult Supervision Required, Awesome beyond awesome, bashing ingorant shit over the head with a shovel, Climate Science, Complex Systems, Debunking Bad Environmentalism, Doomsday Claim Falsified, Ethics in Science, Get some perspective people, Good science attitude, Hard Science, Humbled by Nature, Ignorance to Knowledge, It's weather AND climate!, Majestic Universe, Paradigm Shift, Rational Thinking, Reality Based Environmentalism, Science Education, Science over Propaganada, Science Smackdown, Something to think about, Yikes! The sky is NOT falling! | Leave a Comment »

Why belief in CAGW (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming) is not currently justified by the standards of the scientific method

Posted by Strategesis on May 9, 2012

Science does not deal in absolute proofs. The scientific method depends upon falsification of alternative hypotheses until only one remains.

But “falsification” in science is not absolute. Instead, it is a matter of relative probabilities. Such “proof” by falsification of all alternatives is never final: All scientific laws, theories and hypotheses forever remain subject to falsification at any time–at least in principle, even if the odds of that ever happening are infinitesimally small.

All that is required to falsify an hypothesis, or to falsify the currently-accepted theory, is for an alternative hypothesis to be shown–by empirical evidence and quantitative analysis of the relative probabilities–to have a statistically-significant higher probability of being correct.

The CAGW hypothesis is that a) The Earth’s climate is warming, b) The warming is substantially a result of human emissions of CO2 and, c) The magnitude of the warming will be enough to have significant effects, and d) The net effects of the warming will be harmful, and e) The harm caused by the warming will be great enough to be worth the net costs of politically-coerced mitigation.

Null Hypothesis

The alternative hypothesis–which is also the null hypothesis (<= click the link for more info)–is that a) The warming is substantially due to natural causes for which humans are not substantially responsible, and/or b) The magnitude of any human-caused warming will not be not be great enough to have significant effects by itself (regardless of the effects of any warming not caused by man,) and/or c) The net effects of warming will not be harmfull–or if they are, then not by enough to be worth the cost of politically-coerced mitigation.

The null hypothesis has never been falsified. There have been no peer-reviewed studies published that quantitatively analyze both p(CAGW | Historical-Temperature-Data) [the probability that CAGW hypothesis is true, given the historical temperature data] and p(NullHypothesis | Historical-Temperature-Data) [the probability that the Null Hypothesis is true, given the historical temperature data], showing that the former (CAGW) has a statistically significant higher probability of being true than the latter (the null hypothesis–that warming is substantially natural.) Not one.

But the reverse is not true:
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Posted in Climate Science, Debunking Bad Environmentalism, Doomsday Claim Falsified, Green Religion, Hard Science Required, Politics | 14 Comments »

How Much Energy Is Required To Melt All The Ice In Greenland?

Posted by pwl on March 12, 2012

The Wicked Greenland Soothsayers of the West say “I’m Melting”, now “How much energy is required to melt all the ice in Greenland?”
by pwl

How much energy is required to melt all the ice in Greenland?

How much ice is there in Greenland?

“The Greenland ice sheet (Kalaallisut: Sermersuaq) is a vast body of ice covering 1,710,000 square kilometres (660,235 sq mi), roughly 80% of the surface of Greenland. It is the second largest ice body in the world, after the Antarctic Ice Sheet. The ice sheet is almost 2,400 kilometres (1,500 mi) long in a north-south direction, and its greatest width is 1,100 kilometres (680 mi) at a latitude of 77°N, near its northern margin. The mean altitude of the ice is 2,135 metres (7,005 ft).[1] The thickness is generally more than 2 km (1.24 mi) (see picture) and over 3 km (1.86 mi) at its thickest point. It is not the only ice mass of Greenland – isolated glaciers and small ice caps cover between 76,000 and 100,000 square kilometres (29,344 and 38,610 sq mi) around the periphery. Some scientists predict that climate change may be about to push the ice sheet over a threshold where the entire ice sheet will melt in less than a few hundred years. If the entire 2,850,000 cubic kilometres (683,751 cu mi) of ice were to melt, it would lead to a global sea level rise of 7.2 m (23.6 ft).”
Wikipedia on Greenland Ice Sheet.

2,850,000 cubic kilometers of ice in Greenland.

So claim of a 100 years to melt 2,850,000 cubic kilometers of ice. Hmmm… we’ll get back to that.

How much energy to melt ice?

“When ice melts, it absorbs as much heat energy (the heat of fusion) as it would take to heat an equivalent mass of water by 80 °C, while its temperature remains a constant 0 °C.” – wikipedia on ice

Ok, that’s very cool, it takes a lot of energy to melt ice. Pardon the pun.
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Posted in Climate Science, Debunking Bad Environmentalism, Doomsday Claim Falsified, Ethics in Science, Exercise For the Reader, Get some perspective people, Good science attitude, Hard Science, Hard Science Required, Humbled by Nature, Rational Thinking, Reality Based Environmentalism, Terraforming Earth, TerrorForming Earth, The End is Nigh, The Ground is Falling Up!, Vaporizing Earth! | 11 Comments »

Science Believed Is No Different Than Any Religion

Posted by pwl on May 10, 2011

“Nullis in verba. Take no one’s word for it.” – Motto of the Royal Society

In a FREE society people are free to “believe” or “not believe” any claim of science, however BOTH are making a mistake!!!

Belief: taking as true (or false) that which you have no evidence for; basing your belief upon faith or trust (another form of faith).

Belief has NOTHING to do with science, belief is a process of the mind that takes things on faith rather than evidence that can be verified, preferably by each person or in a basic science class room.
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Posted in Adventure, Awesome beyond awesome, Climate Science, Complex Systems, Debunking Bad Environmentalism, Doomsday Claim Falsified, Ethics in Science, Hard Science Required, Human|Ape, Humbled by Nature, Ideas Crazy Enough to Have a Chance, Ignorance to Knowledge, Ontology of Being, Philosophy, Politics, Proofs Needed, Rational Thinking, Reality Based Environmentalism, Science over Propaganada | Leave a Comment »

2002 Coral Doomsday Claim is Falsified by Observational Data

Posted by pwl on April 17, 2011

2002 Coral Doomsday Claim is Falsified by Observational Data

The Doomsday Claim: World’s Coral: 40% gone by 2010. “Across the world, coral reefs are turning into marine deserts. It’s estimated that more than a quarter have been lost and that 40 per cent could be gone by 2010.”

Doomsday Claim Validation/Falsification Test: Check the current amount of Coral in the world for 2011. If the coral has dropped by 40% or more or thereabouts the claim is validated and coral doomsday might have arrived, however if the level of coral in 2010 or after has not dropped as predicted the coral doomsday claim is falsified, null and void.

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Posted in Climate Science, Complex Systems, Debunking Bad Environmentalism, Doomsday Claim, Doomsday Claim Database, Doomsday Claim Falsified, Eco-Junk Science Terrorists, Eco-zombie Terrorists, Evil Walks the Earth and Carries a Big Stick, Get some perspective people, Green Religion, Hard Science, Holding those who run the world responsible for their crimes against humanity, Humbled by Nature, Ignorance to Knowledge, Proofs, Rational Thinking, Reality Based Environmentalism, Science over Propaganada, Something to think about, They got the math wrong!, Yikes! The sky is NOT falling! | Leave a Comment »

 
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